Photo : DANIEL ACKER/BLOOMBERG NEWS
30 April 2022, Saturday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #189
War in Ukraine: Day 65
By Padmashree Anandhan and Rishma Banerjee
War on the ground:
Zelenskyy’s address, people stuck in Ukraine ports
Zelenskyy’s address
On 29 April, President Zelenskyy in his daily address spoke about Russia’s continuous attacks in the Kharkiv and Donbas regions. He referred to increasing aggression by Russia and said: “Constant brutal bombings, constant Russian strikes at infrastructure and residential areas show that Russia wants to make this area uninhabited. Therefore, the defence of our land, the protection of our people is literally a struggle for life.” Zelenskyy also spoke about talking to president Biden about the Lend-Lease program and thanked him for it. He also mentioned how the country was looking how to prevent a fuel deficit in the country, in spite of Russia trying its best to destroy the infrastructure in place for proper production, storage and supply of fuel. He also criticised Russia's strike on Kyiv, during his talks with UN chief, António Guterres and said: “and this says a lot about Russia’s true attitude to global institutions, about the efforts of the Russian leadership to humiliate the UN and everything that the organisation represents.”
Ukraine sends a letter to WHO
On 29 April Ukraine's diplomatic mission in Geneva, Switzerland sent a letter to the WHO, requesting a meeting urgently. This is to discuss the impact of Russia’s invasion on the health and health care infrastructure in Ukraine. The letter which was signed by 38 members in the European region like France, Germany and the UK was addressed to the regional director of Europe, Hans Kluge, requesting him to convey a meeting before 9 May.
Peace talks with Russia might collapse
President Zelenskyy in an interview with Poland’s journalists said that he was pessimistic about the continuation of negotiations with Russia. He said that given the nature of Russian aggression and the public anger with Russian atrocities it might become difficult for Ukraine to conduct peace talks.
About 500 people still stuck in ships in Ukraine’s ports
Ukraine's shipping officials said that the skeleton crew stuck in the 109 ships in Ukraine’s ports were still stuck there. The number of people who still have not been evacuated was just under 500. These crew members were left on board to facilitate the evacuation of their crewmates. International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) association along with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) reported that around 1,500 merchant sailors have been evacuated from these vessels. Natalie Shaw, an official at the ICS said: The escape route out of ‘the apocalypse’ must be open to these seafarers as well.”
The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia
Russia’s defence ministry
On 29 April, Russia’s defence ministry released a video that showed a series of Kalibr missiles emerging from the sea and going off to hit what the ministry said were Ukraine’s military targets. Russia reportedly used a diesel submarine, and this is the first time they have made an announcement about using their submarine fleet in Ukraine.
The ministry also released a picture of shows a person from the UK who has been captured and is being questioned by Russia’s forces. The man, who says his name is Andrew Hill, seems to be injured, with a bandaged left arm and head, and with blood on his right arm. The defence ministry said that he has been captured after he surrendered to Russia’s troops in the Mykolaiv region in southwestern Ukraine.
The defence ministry also confirmed their use of two “high-precision, long-range air-based weapons” in Kyiv, on the day UN Chief Antonio Guterres was visiting the city. They reported that they had destroyed the Artyom missile and space enterprise in Kyiv.
Sergei Lavrov’s comments about nuclear war
The foreign minister said that the country is not considering a war against NATO when it comes to its invasion of Ukraine. He said that this would increase the risks of a nuclear war significantly. As cited by the RIA news agency, Lavrov also said that Ukraine was responsible for stalled peace talks between the two countries.
Most senior lawmaker says Ukraine is mortgaging itself to the US
On 29 April, Russia’s parliamentarian, Vyacheslav Volodin said that by accepting the Lend-Lease loan, Zelensky was driving the country into a veritable debt trap. The speaker of the lower house of the Parliament said: "Lend-Lease is a commodity loan, and not cheap: many future generations of Ukrainian citizens will pay for all the ammunition, equipment and food that the United States will supply.”
Separatist official reports shelling by Ukraine in Donetsk
On 29 April, the separatist mayor of Donetsk, Alexey Kulemzin reported that Ukraine's army had damaged an oil depot in Donetsk by shelling. He said: "As a result of the bombardment of the Kirovsky district, a Ukrainian missile damaged a container at an oil depot… Four electric substations have been damaged, 50 residents are without electric power."
Reports of evacuation to Russia from Ukraine
On 29 April, it was reported that Russia’s National Defense Management Center’s Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev has said that a total of 19,442 people were evacuated to Russia. He also spoke about how they have been evacuated from the ‘dangerous areas in Ukraine’ without any assistance from the Ukrainian authorities.
The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe
The US
On 29 April, close to 200 Ukrainians were sent back from the US border in Mexico. It was due to the closure of the San Diego border checkpoint by the US authorities which allows the entry of refugees from Ukraine. More than 100 have reached Mexico through trans-Atlantic flights, which has become the new point for processing asylum requests.
On 29 April, upon Russia’s move to cut down the gas supplies, the EU and the US vowed to expand their exports of liquified natural gas to Europe till 2030. Previously both parties were against the exchange as it mandates the use of fossil fuels, in the reduction of greenhouse gases and conflicts with policy goals. According to the senior director for climate and energy at the National Security Council: “There’s a real potential here for Europe to signal the demand for U.S. LNG and for our U.S. LNG providers to provide that gas to them in the form of long-term contracts.”
The EU
The eurozone which grew at a diffident pace in the first three months of the year currently faces a risk of economic recession due to the Ukraine war. On 29 April, the European Union statistics agency reported that the eurozone’s GDP, a measure of goods and services had shot by 0.2 per cent higher in the last three months of 2021. As far as the US is concerned, the economy is constricted by 1.4 per cent. According to the vice president of the European Central Bank: “This surge in energy prices is reducing demand and raising production costs. The war is also weighing heavily on business and consumer confidence and has created new bottlenecks. These developments point to slower growth in the period ahead.”
Poland
On 29 April, Poland sent 240 soviet styled tanks to Ukraine which will help last for two tank brigades. Apart from this T-72 tanks were provided along with self-propelled howitzers, grad rocket launchers and other weaponry from Poland. The continued supply of heavy equipment by Poland shows the increase in pace to help out Ukraine. Other European countries, the Czech Republic, Germany, and the US have also sent their T-72 tanks, 50 Flakpanzer Gepard antiaircraft cannon tanks and USD 33 billion as military aid.
Latvia
On 29 April, Latvia’s banking sector which was known for its scandals tried to reverse its reputation using the Ukraine war. It has done so by obliging to the sanctions imposed by the EU and has limited its operations with both Belarus and Russia. According to the deputy head of anti-money-laundering at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken: “We are tracking all transactions in [Russian] rubles, it doesn’t matter which side of the transaction [they are on]. We are stopping them, and checking those customers and their counterparties.”
The Global Fallouts:
International implications of the Ukraine war
The UN
On 29 April, United Nations secretary-general António Guterres after his visit to Kyiv. He said: “Two rockets have exploded in Kyiv. I was shocked to be informed that two rockets exploded in the city where I am.” He assured that the UN would work towards a ceasefire and in helping Ukraine with cash assistance to reduce human suffering.
Indonesia
On 29 April, Indonesia’s president Joko Widodo who will host the G-20 cooperation meet has come forward and stated that Indonesia was ready to coordinate the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Earlier, the US had called for the expelling of Russia from the G20 forum, and now with Indonesia’s announcement on remaining fair means Russia will be invited to attend.
Brazil
The food crisis for certain commodities have risen because of the huge share Russia and Ukraine held in Agriculture. The possibility for Brazil to become the next biggest wheat producer is at peak now. According to analysts, they predict an increase of 40 per cent in the national wheat production. Previously if Brazil had planned on producing a protein rich variety of tropical wheat it would have not been profitable, but with the war in place, the farmers of Brazil are considering to switch patterns to shoot up the volumes and fill the gap of demand left out by Russia and Ukraine.
References:
“Lend-Lease and other programs in support of Ukraine prove that freedom is still able to defend itself against tyranny - address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy,” President of Ukraine, 29 April 2022
Emma Farge, “Ukraine seeks urgent WHO meeting on impact of invasion on health,” Reuters, 29 April 2022
“Ukraine's Zelenskiy sees big risk that Russia talks will end -Interfax Ukraine,” Reuters, 29 April 2022
Jonathan Saul,“Shipping industry pushes to rescue remaining seafarers trapped in Ukraine,” Reuters, 29 April 2022
Julian Borge, Lorenzo Tondo and Jon Henley, “Zelenskiy urges ‘strong response’ after Russia strikes Kyiv during UN Ukraine visit,” The Guardian, 29 April 2022
“Moscow confirms attack on Kyiv during UN chief’s visit,” The Guardian, 29 April 2022
“Russian submarine strikes Ukraine with cruise missiles, defence ministry says,” Reuters, 29 April 2022
“Russian parliament chief says Ukraine is mortgaging itself to the United States,” Reuters, 29 April 2022
“Russia does not consider itself at war with NATO, blames Kyiv for talks deadlock - agencies,” Reuters, 29 April 2022
“Oil depot in Donetsk damaged in shelling by Ukraine, mayor says,” TASS, 29 April 2022
“Over 19,000 people evacuated to Russia from Ukraine, DPR, LPR in past day,” TASS, 29 April 2022
“Russia releases video showing British man captured in Ukraine,” Reuters, 30 April 2022
Santiago Pérez, “Ukrainian Refugees Turned Back at Border in Mexico as U.S. Changes Policy,” WSJ, 29 April 2022
Christopher M. Matthews and Jenny Strasburg, “As Europe Thirsts for Natural Gas, U.S., EU Signal Support for Long-Term Deals,” WSJ, 29 April 2022
Ben Richardson, “U.N.’s Guterres ‘Shocked’ by Missile Strike on Kyiv During Visit to Ukraine,” WSJ, 29 April 2022
Drew Hinshaw and Natalia Ojewska, “Poland Has Sent More Than 200 Tanks to Ukraine,” WSJ, 29 April 2022
Drew Hinshaw and Natalia Ojewska, “Poland Supplies Ukraine With Hundreds of Soviet-Style Tanks,” WSJ, 29 April 2022
Lizeth Beltran, “Indonesia Ready to Facilitate Peace Talks Between Russia, Ukraine, President Says,” WSJ, 29 April 2022
Dylan Tokar, “Once a Money-Laundering Risk, Latvia Looks to Rebuild Reputation in Face of Russia Sanctions,” WSJ, 29 April 2022
Paul Hannon, “Eurozone Economy Keeps Growing but Recession Risk Looms,” WSJ, 29 April 2022
Samantha Pearson, “Brazil Eyes Wheat in the Heat to Tackle Ukraine Grain Shortage,” WSJ, 29 April 2022
IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan
THE UK
Inquiry by UK’s judge suggests the Virgin Islands be ruled directly by London
On 29 April, a critical inquiry led by judge Gary Hickinbottom on the governance of the UK’s overseas territory - the British Virgin Islands, recommended dissolving its government and to be directly ruled by London. Queen Elizabeth’s representative in the UK’s overseas territory, Governor John Rankin, ordered the investigation in 2021 to probe into “corruption, misuse of office, and other significant dishonesty” in the territory’s governance. Every year, politicians and ministries misuse state revenue without following the necessary procedures. The investigation also discovered substantial dishonesty in the sale of public property and the abuse of appointment selections. The UK’s foreign secretary Liz Truss stated that the report “shows clearly that substantial legislative and constitutional change is required to restore the standards of governance that the people of the British Virgin Islands are entitled to.” (Brian Ellsworth and William James, “British Virgin Islands should be temporarily returned to UK rule, inquiry says,” Reuters, 30 April 2022)
REGIONAL
EU’s border agency chief resigns over claims of misconduct towards refugees
On 29 April, the head of the EU’s border agency Frontex, Fabrice Leggeri, resigned following reports of misconduct and complicity in illegal pushbacks of asylum seekers. Humanitarian aid groups had accused Frontex of illegally returning migrants and refugees across EU borders or turning a blind eye when national authorities carried out “pushbacks” themselves. Such allegations have centred in Greece’s land and marine borders with Turkey. The EU’s anti-fraud body, OLAF, spent over a year investigating the reports and is expected to reveal its findings soon. Other incidents of pushbacks have been documented by human rights NGOs in Poland, along the Belarusian border, and in Spain and Croatia. In light of Leggeri’s resignation and claims of human rights violations, the European Parliament’s Left group has called for a debate on Frontex and its mandate to be held next week during plenary sessions. (Alice Tidey, “Frontex chief resigns over misconduct and human rights violations probe,” Euronews, 29 April 2022)